In “Black Swan” (Page 159 in the Penguin 2010 Edition) Taleb makes an interesting estimate of potential project overruns. As example, he takes a Project that is planned to terminate in 79 days. If the Project is still not finished on day 79, then he states it should be expected to take another 25. If still not finished on day 90, should take a further 58. 100 gives 89, 119 gives 149, and at 600, you will wait 1’590 days.
In the notes (Page 391 in my Penguin), he gives his basis which is a probability based on a power-law, where f=Kx^1.5
He also gives his background theory : this is two integrals which I have no idea how to write with this editor !
I guess I am just not smart enough to follow his Maths – and would really like to understand this in detail.
If anyone could take me through the steps, I would be immensely grateful.
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