http://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-price-movement-explained-by-one-equation-fundstrat-tom-lee-metcalf-law-network-effect-2017-10-1007560818
article
the square function number of users times the average transaction value. 94% of the bitcoin moved over the past four years is explained by that equation.
It does’t make sense for me about a mathematical equation of 94% explained bitcoin price in this article.
If I’d like to predict a bitcoin price of following day using this equation, is this as following?
square function number of users * the average transaction value ↓
square number of unique addresses per day * (trade volume(USD) per day / number of transactions per day) ↓ 604,054^2 * (597,502,689 / 271,995) = 801,644,073,110,452
date: 2017/11/14 00:00
reference unique addresses
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=30days
reference trade volume
https://blockchain.info/ja/charts/trade-volume?timespan=30days
reference transactions
https://blockchain.info/ja/charts/n-transactions?timespan=30days
Answer is very huge number. Could someone explain that concretely where the wrong is?
Thank you